We live in an uncertain and complex world, yet we continually have to make decisions in the present with uncertain future outcomes. Indeed, we should be on the look-out for “black swans” – low-probability high-impact events.
To study, or not to study? To invest, or not to invest? To marry, or not to marry?
While uncertainty makes decision-making difficult, it does at least make life exciting! If the entire future was known in advance, there would never be an element of surprise. Whether a good future or a bad future, it would be a known future.
In this course we consider many useful tools to deal with uncertainty and help us to make informed (and hence better) decisions – essential skills for a lifetime of good decision-making.
Key topics include quantifying uncertainty with probability, descriptive statistics, point and interval estimation of means and proportions, the basics of hypothesis testing, and a selection of multivariate applications of key terms and concepts seen throughout the course.
